Many experts expect 4 weeks of debates but also criticism

T he British general elections to be held on 6 may, as confirmed yesterday the Prime Minister Gordon Brown at the same time asking the Queen to dissolve Parliament next Monday, to announce as the more uncertain since 1992 and at the same time the heavier issues since 1974.

Ahead of the conservatives in the polls is indeed considered too fragile to ensure a clear victory. Having regard to the redistricting to the left, almost all scenarios are possible: a short advance of labour seats, which would allow Gordon Brown, as to the conservative John Major, in 1992, to stay in power, an absolute majority for the conservatives who turn a page in the history of the United Kingdom.

The hypothesis of a Parliament with no clear majority that could lead to an unstable government and finally without legitimacy to reduce the budget deficit of the country, the most important of all rich countries, is therefore not excluded. However the last time that the polls have given such a "suspended Parliament," the country was to turn two years later, in 1976, the international monetary Fund (IMF) to help restructure its public finances. The coincidence concerned. Particularly vigilant since the Greek crisis, financial markets will therefore live to the rhythm of the surveys: they sell the book and the debt of State British when advance Conservatives will decrease.

The task of the tories is huge

The 45 million voters - and including some 100,000 citizens identified as crucial in balancing seats - have before them a conservative party that its leader David Cameron promises to be modernized to meet the centrist electorate that Tony Blair has attracted to Labour in 1997. On the other side is a labour party led by a Gordon Brown at the end of difficult reign but that the population credits to have handed over the country on the path of growth after the great crisis of recent years.

The task of the tories is immense: increase of 117 seats - a performance that they not have not performed since 1931 - their presence in the House of Commons for 326 votes for giving the majority. However despite the parallels with the generational renewal of New Labour from the mid-1990s, David Cameron is successfully to generate the same enthusiasm as Tony Blair. A large part of the voters always wondered if the right has really changed. The tories are reassembled in several polls these days, but the trend remains fuzzy. Yesterday, a YouGov survey gave thus ahead by 10 points to conservatives while an ICM poll gave them 4 points. Experts calculate that in the first case, the right is likely to have an absolute majority, while in the second, Gordon Brown is likely to remain in power. The latter is to believe in its chances: "now, let's go, we all", solemnly told the latter, yesterday, 10 Downing Street, flanked by members of his Government.

Fierce debates

David Cameron appeared no less determined: "these are the most important election in a generation: you do not have to undergo 5 new years with Gordon Bro wn", he said yesterday before the intervention of the Prime Minister. Many experts expect 4 weeks of debates but also criticism.

Although there can be little doubt that the tories will insist on spending cuts rather than tax increases and that Labour will be more inclined to do the reverse, the two main parties have little detailed the anticipated more of their program part: that which will describe who will have to tighten their belts. The electorate can be found in large part to a choice of personalities. This feature will be accentuated this year by a first for British democracy: discussions television between Brown, Cameron and Nick Clegg, the Liberal-Democrat leader which could play a pivotal role if no clear majority not emerged by May 6.