There's what see the future in pinkAnd yet

Finally... everything is not so evil. In 2006, the French economy has experienced a growth of 2 to 2.5, well above the average increase of 1.5 observed since the beginning of the Decade. Thierry Breton can be: the Minister of economy and finance had retained this range to determine its budget while banks and institutes of economic forecasters were markedly less optimistic. This year, he also did not need to bring to consult before presenting its draft finance law to the Parliament. And it displays presented budget yesterday a forecast growth of 2 to 2.5. Bis ASM, but can we rely

To its detractors, Thierry Breton can be said that one reason against all or almost. It can also support that he broke the curse of Bercy. For a decade, predecessors (many) are all mistaken in large widths. When the Minister announced at around 2.5 growth, the horse of the growth was thrilled beyond or, instead, block with four horseshoes. Conversely, as soon as the forecast significantly away from the fateful figure, growth, it was close invariably 2.5.

The financier may also argue that the France is better. And it is true that the dashboard of quarterly accounts for the nation established by Insee is much better. Over 12 months, from mid-2005 to mid-2006, activity measured gross domestic product grew by 2.6, 0.8 a year earlier. Exports are in progress of 9.5, 1.7 last year. Consumption is on a slope of 3.1, compared to 1.8, and the business investment won 4.6 against 2.1. Other indicators are going in the right direction: departed on employment, unemployment decreased, inflation slows and per litre of gasoline is cheaper. There's what see the future in pink!

And yet... Next year growth to be as strong this year, should be that its engines turn as fast or that slowdowns are offset by acceleration. But two shots of brake are already in sight. While there is no accelerator in perspective.

The first burden comes from outside. Three major partners of the France, who buy nearly a third of its exports, will lose the looks: America, with his depressed estate, the Germany, with its raised VAT, and the Italy, with its sabré budget. In the US, the real estate downturn is brutal. As Americans used their homes as a distributor tickets by borrowing money pledge on the rise in the price of their House, its impact on the consumption will be massive. Growth could be below 2, and some experts talk of recession. Germany, VAT will be relieved by 3 points to January 1. Growth, which was finally distributed German, will inevitably suffer from consumption in Bern. It would barely exceed the 1. What will be better than in Italy, where the Prodi government fine-tunes unprecedented budget savings plan, which would cover 15 billion euros.

The second brake shot him, comes from the Interior of the country: it is real estate. Prices have been mad ascent, and cuts are beginning to be observed. New housing stock increased. However, the construction plays a major role in the current cycle of growth. According the calculations of the economists of the Ixis Bank, without real estate, French production would have even declined last year! Housing demand of course supports the activity of entrepreneurs, but also all purchases around the fireplace equipment. Not to mention "wealth effect": when the French feel that the price of their home increases, they save less. Today, they put aside less than 15 of their income the lowest rate since the beautiful time of the year 2000.

Beneficial to the growth of the housing boom has its counterpart: a debt growing. With very enterprising bankers and low interest rates, the French borrowed massively. At the beginning of the Decade, the mass of housing loans increased from 7 to 8 over the year. The rate rose above 10 in 2004. Today, it is 15. Loans for consumption, they advance of 7 on an annual basis. However, credit life has its limits. And these limits are close, that the population is aging, purchasing power is progressing, that interest rates can be traced. Next year, the contribution of the real estate growth will significantly lose steam.

Faced with these shots of brake and foreign real estate, which can come the impulse The investment Accelerator lack of nerve. The rates of progression are the order of 3 or 4, while rising usually climbs to 10 at the time of recovery, as in 1990 or 1998. But large enterprises invest little in France. And the others lack money: they barely finance over two-thirds of their effort to equipment on their own funds, the lowest rate of self-financing in twenty years. Salvation will come no more public expenditure: the Government intends to reduce the expenditure of the State of 1. 4 Billion euros of the income tax relief will not be enough to boost consumption. French companies have apparently not found competitiveness that would enable them to leap their exports.

Difficult, therefore, does not anticipate less tonic French growth next year. Of course, the worst is never safe. Everything would be better if accelerators appeared, if the Germany overcame its increase in VAT, the French continued massive debt, businesses looted on wages or Bank arm turn, barrel of oil was $ 30 to the dollar to 1 euro. But everyone can be wrong. Economists, which provide an average French growth of 2 next year. And even the Minister of the economy. 2006 Elsewhere, if it had well expected growth, he has undervalued the tax revenues of at least EUR 5 billion! When it comes to predict, there is no perfect.