8 after a very slight increase in the third quarter

Notaries of Ile-de-France and the Insee figures yesterday confirmed the trends of market data in the fall by developers and real estate agencies. In the fourth quarter, "prices stabilize at a high level and sales mark a clear progression year", summarizes the Chamber of notaries of Paris Ile-de-France. In Ile-de-France, the number of new and old housing sold in the fourth quarter ( 44) is higher than the same period last year, which had a hole-in-air, but it is also higher by 5 in sales recorded in the fourth quarter of 2007. At the national level, on 12 sliding months, in the former, the rebound of sales volumes is 3 in three months.

"Since the fall, we attended an effect of catch-up, with"forced"sales due to divorce, death, mutations... who could not more be postponed, and to an unblocking of sales by improving financial conditions, analysis the President of the Chamber of notaries of Paris, Jean-François Humbert.". "In 18 months, the real estate purchasing power has increased 20 " as a result of declines in prices (-5-10 depending on the sector) and interest rates. Beyond the effect of catch-up, there is also a standardization of the market, believe the notaries in a release. "The dynamism of sales is now the full range of real estate products and more, as before, the property of small often for primo-homebuyers.".

So, does not mean good health. At the national level, from December 2008 to November 2009, notaries-Insee index lists 575.000 transactions in the former, either resumption of 3 in three months, but a very sharp decline of 16 over the previous twelve months. Ile-de-France, where the chambre des notaires identifies both the volumes in the new and old, total 145.310 units have been sold, or 8 per cent less than in 2008 and 23 less than in 2007. Moreover, the relief found at the end is not all types of goods. In Ile-de-France, he concentrated on the new apartments.

The weight of the aid and rates

The recovery appears to be selective. Side price, at the national level as in Ile-de-France, in the fourth quarter, the former housing prices increased by 1.8, after a very slight increase in the third quarter. Note that the Ile-de-France price increase is mainly due to apartments ( 2.1), whereas, in the province, the houses who draw the market ( 2.4). But the rebound in the last quarter does not prevent national prices remain down 4.4 on the whole of 2009 (-3.7 in the province and, especially, 5.6 in Ile-de-France).

Overall, the recovery appears dependent on Government aid and interest rates. "Were asked a year ago if we were going to lower the price, but it is not manifested significantly, note Jean-François Humbert. During the crisis of the early 1990s, it took 18 months for the fall in sales resulted in a decline in prices, this time period is exceeded. "Of course, but cannot be excluded that the crisis is not similarly nature, she finally takes the form of a soft but long slope. About the Outlook for 2010, "we are considering an increase in the price, he continues. "They could remain stable and the volume of sales could increase." Now is to know first trends from the network for real estate agencies.

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